Dr Phil Hardman’s latest analysis is fascinating: in her sample of 379 UK/US L&D job ads (June–August 2026), only 1% were junior roles. That’s because AI now drafts lessons, quizzes and videos. Humans are hired – if at all – to specify, judge and measure.
Outside L&D, the same is happening – PwC’s 2026 barometer shows AI-exposed junior roles are increasingly “seniorised”, demanding judgement and leadership skills from day one.
Yet many organisations have no coherent plan for what replaces the bottom rung and it’s part of the gaps in Strategic Workforce Planning across business.
In L&D specifically, McKinsey and others urge some key actions:
- integrate learning within business priorities
- embed AI in workflows
- redesign early career pathways
- measure time-to-proficiency and impact rather than activity
I’ve been calling for 1 and 4 for years, 3 needs external support – looking at you Skills England, and 2 is across the piece in all functions and sectors.
Who will own the replacement ladder?
Degrees that grade specs and critiques rather than assets, employers who create capability-building cohorts and micro-apprenticeships, and a profession that treats talent pipeline design as core infrastructure, not an afterthought.